The AI Ecosystem at a Glance · 4/4
Stress Test Reports and Monthly Checkpoints: Disclosure History
Results of the quarterly stress tests and monthly checkpoints run with the stress test model are listed here, newest first. Published results are never edited; corrections are published under the next run ID.
Latest release
ST-2026Q3-01 Stress Test Results (July–September 2026, Preliminary)
- The weak side is funding, not demand. Credit shutdown (S3) and shorter GPU life (S4) reach M4–M5 at L2.
- Current trends alone are M3. CoreWeave, the Stargate site SPVs, Oracle's AI unit and the neoclouds run short of cash by January–March 2027.
- Monthly checkpoint CP-2026-10 shows two reds and four yellows, meeting the trigger for an ad hoc test.
Quarterly stress tests
| Published | Run ID | Period covered | Type | Magnitude | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Late Nov 2026 (planned) | ST-2026Q3-02 | Jul–Sep 2026 | Full | — | To be published with CoreWeave, SoftBank and NVIDIA results |
| Nov 2, 2026 | ST-2026Q3-01 | Jul–Sep 2026 | Preliminary | S7 M5 S8 M3 | View results |
Monthly checkpoints
| Published | Run ID | Month | Signals | Decision | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early Dec 2026 (planned) | CP-2026-11 | Nov 2026 | — | — | To be published |
| Nov 2, 2026 | CP-2026-10 | Oct 2026 | Red 2 Yellow 4 Green 4 | Ad hoc test triggered (covered by ST-2026Q3-01) | View results |
Disclosure rules
| Type | Run ID | When published | Content |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterly, preliminary | ST-YYYYQn-01 | Early in the second month after quarter-end (e.g. Jul–Sep → early November) | Results based on earnings disclosures available so far; results not yet reported are provisionally filled |
| Quarterly, full | ST-YYYYQn-02 | Late in the second month after quarter-end (e.g. Jul–Sep → late November) | Final version with all players' results and measured monthly indicators |
| Ad hoc test | ST-YYYYQn-03 onward | When triggered by the monthly checkpoint (within 10 business days) | Related shock raised by one level and recalculated; the trigger is stated at the top |
| Monthly checkpoint | CP-YYYY-MM | Early each month (for the previous month) | Signals (green/yellow/red) for 10 leading indicators and the trigger decision |
When a monthly checkpoint falls at the same time as a quarterly test, it is published on the quarterly test page.
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