Macro Risk Monitor · 4/4
Monthly Monitor Reports
Monthly results from the Risk Measurement Model are listed newest first. Reports are not rewritten after publication. Corrections are recorded in later reports.
Latest disclosure
MR-2026-09 September 2026 Final
- Prices moved together for the first time in 2026. HY OAS widened from 2.63% to 3.12%. Financial functions remained normal.
- Macro pressure rose again, with GRCS5 at 85.70. The objective proxy-GRCS also returned to 74.1. The gap with judgment reached +15.2, above the criterion.
- SURI≥60 rose to 12 countries. All five judged predictions were hits, but the Brier score is 0.338.
Monthly reports
| Published | Run ID | Month | GRCS5 | FFI | FCO | Regime | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-November 2026 (planned) | MR-2026-10 | October 2026 | — | — | — | — | Planned |
| November 3, 2026 | MR-2026-09 | September 2026 | 85.70 | 71.45 | 5.34 | Compound Macro Stress / Latent Fragility | View results |
| November 3, 2026 | MR-2026-08 | August 2026 | 83.44 | 71.10 | 3.27 | Compound Macro Stress / Latent Fragility | View results |
| November 3, 2026 | MR-2026-07 | July 2026 | 81.57 | 70.80 | 4.36 | Compound Macro Stress / Latent Fragility | View results |
| November 3, 2026 | MR-2026-06 | June 2026 | 80.27 | 69.90 | 4.32 | Compound Macro Stress / Latent Fragility | View results |
The four reports from June to September were published together when the site opened. Each report states when it was prepared. The June report was prepared retroactively. FCO is shown on the v2.1 basis in all reports.
Prediction log to date
| Issued | Judged | Hits | Open | Mean Brier | Reference (all 50%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 0.338 | 0.25 |
Lower is better. We gave low probabilities to the predictions that hit, so the value is worse than 0.25 despite the run of hits. Unmet predictions are not counted until their deadline, so hits come first.
Disclosure rules
| Type | Run ID | Timing | Content |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly final | MR-YYYY-MM | 10th to 15th of the next month | Final report once monthly data such as FAO are in |
| Special | MR-YYYY-MM-X | When the regime changes | States the reason for the change at the top |
| Annual validation | — | Each January | Brier review, full test re-run and anchor review |
We publish final reports only, with no preliminary editions. Reports are not rewritten after publication, and corrections are recorded in later reports.
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